PLAY TO WIN INSTEAD OF NOT TO LOSE: Lessons from the Dambusters
Lessons from the Dambusters By George A. Haloulakos, CFA
Copyright 2023 © George A. Haloulakos, CFA
All rights reserved. This material may not be copied or transmitted in any form without written permission from the author.
A Special Tribute
This writeup was created in honor of the 80th Anniversary of Operation Chastise – the legendary Dambuster carried out by Royal Air Force and the AVRO Lancaster Bomber in 1943. It is the latest in my continuing series of articles where aviation is used as a teaching tool for Finance, History and Strategy.
The Dambusters: A Case Study in Game
Theory, Innovation and Situational Awareness
The Narrative: Putting It Together
Finance explains how capital is employed to create added-value and is the language of business.
In the context of Finance, Game Theory + Innovation + Situational Awareness = Foundation for Added-Value.
Finance involves tangible and intangible assets while factoring opportunity costs along with cash outlays. This approach can be applied to military strategy / combat.
Intangible Assets (superb piloting skills) plus Capital Assets (AVRO Lancaster Bomber) equals the Difference Maker for Victory.
Table of Contents
The Dambuster Raid – A Daring Mission
Role of Game Theory
Importance of Innovation
Practical Application of Technology
The Human Factor / Situational Awareness
Results and Lessons Learned
Closing Thoughts, Appendices and Author
THE DAMBUSTER RAID
-Operation Chastise-
A daring WW II aviation strike mission by the Royal Air Force No. 617 Squadron.
Purpose: Destroy several key dams in Germany’s industrial heartland, disruping vital supplies of electricity and water.
Modified AVRO Lancaster bombers deliver a “bouncing bomb” (to skip along water before detonating against the dam walls).
Lancaster’s high operating ceiling, long range and huge payload capacity are the basis for being an effective all-weather asset in night-time conditions.
ROLE OF GAME THEORY
– Definition –
Analysis of strategy and tactics in situations of conflict, competition or cooperation in which the participants are faced with choices of action by which they will gain or lose depending on what others choose to do or not to do.
In Finance, this involves applying laws of probability in assessing how market participants expect their opponents to respond or react.
Game theory is a blend of behavioral psychology and mathematics that can be applied to military combat as well as Finance.
GAME THEORY
– Combat Applications –
How to avoid defeat by a sneaky adversary
How to make the best of a bad situation
How to avoid the worst of a good situation when confronting fully rational, fully analytic adversary possessing strong skills & resources How to achieve stalemate in situations that do not offer clear-cut opportunities of winning
Importance of Innovation The playful activity of “skipping stones” is converted into a strike force measure.
Drum-shaped bomb dropped from a height of 60 feet at 232 MPH ground speed. The bomb would spin backwards across the water’s surface before reaching the dam. Residual spin drives bomb down the wall before exploding at the base.
Child’s Play in Combat
Making It Work With Technology
Two spotlights on each Lancaster Bomber used to ascertain required height to release the “bouncing bomb.”
Each bomb launched with “backspin” to skip over torpedo nets protecting the dam.
After impact, bomb spun down to the dam’s base and then exploded.
Dambusters in Action: A Practical Application of Technology
The Human Factor: Expert Piloting Plus Situational Awareness
Precision night-time flying, teamwork and element of surprise required for success.
Well engineered, durably constructed dams in heavily fortified region defended by a phalanx of anti aircraft artillery and radar.
Steep terrain, tree covered hills, winding reservoirs, watertight concrete cores, and a church spire in the only feasible flight path.
Tallying the Results 19 Lancasters vs 12th Air Corps
8 aircraft lost (42% loss rate)
53 aircrew killed 3 aircrew taken prisoner
2 dams breached
1 dam modestly or lightly damaged
1,600 civilians killed (including 1,000 prisoners and slave labourers, mainly
Soviet)
Lessons Learned
-Measuring TOTAL Strategic Value-
Although impact on industrial production was limited, the raid gave enormous boost to the people of the United Kingdom – especially after enduring the adversary’s “Blitz.”
Caused adversary to draw its defenses back into Germany and away from actual and potential theaters of ground war.
Removed adversary’s invincibility while giving Allies momentum and initiative.
Closing Thoughts
The Dambusters have a similar profile as other historic strike missions (e.g, 1942 Doolittle Raiders launched by USA vs Japan, 1982 Operation Blackbuck Vulcan Bombers launched by UK vs Argentina – Falklands Island War).
Limited material impact BUT gaining enormous intangibles: initiative, momentum and morale.
Forcing adversary to divert resources away from offense and focus on defense (losing initiative).
Appendix 1: AVRO Lancaster
Number built: 7,377
Span: 102 feet
Length: 69 feet
Speed: 300 mph
Crew: 7
Range: 2,530 miles
Svc Ceil: 21,400 ft
Bombs: 14,000 lbs
Reference Sources
The Dambuster Raid: A Bold Aviation Mission That Changed the
Course of WWII. Avi-8.com
The Incredible Story of the Dambusters Raid. Iwm.org.uk
Haloulakos, George A. (Spartan Research). Case Study Files and
Field Notes on Military/Aerospace Industry, Military Aircraft, Finance and Strategy. 1976 – to date.
Haloulakos, George A. (CFA
Charterholder). CALL TO GLORY – How the Convair B-58 Hustler Helped Win the Cold War. ISBN: 9780692475454. UC San Diego Bookstore Publishing. 2015.
Haloulakos, George A. (CFA
Charterholder). HIGH FLIGHT – Aviation as a Teaching Tool for Finance, Strategy and American Exceptionalism. ISBN: 9780100727380. UC San Diego Bookstore Publishing. 2014.
Hathaway, James A. Famous Planes and Pilots. Golden Press – New York. 1963.
Holland, James. Dam Busters – The True Story of the Legendary Raid on the Ruhr. Bantam Press. 2012.
Militaryfactory.com
GEORGE A. HALOULAKOS
CFA Charterholder Finance Instructor and Entrepreneur (Spartan Research & Consulting)
Author of CALL TO GLORY – How the Convair B-58 Hustler Helped Win the Cold War.
Other books by George are Dollars and Sense: A Workbook on the
ABCs of Investments, Directed Studies in Advanced
Financial Analysis, and HIGH FLIGHT – Aviation as a Teaching Tool for Finance, Strategy and American Exceptionalism.
3-Time Excellence in Teaching Award Winner.
4Time Excellence in Journalism Award Winner.
